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Thread: Solving the Evade Equation

  1. #1

    Exclamation Solving the Evade Equation

    I enjoyed playing Anarchy Online, mostly due to the learning process. I love to demystify and understand how, why, and what things are done ingame. In my opinion, the evade formula is the last, and only true mystery left in the game, and so I have taken some steps toward finally revealing it.

    Lots of theories have been posted, all explaining bits and pieces of what factor effects what other factor, why it's one way instead of another, etc etc., but although many of the people presenting these theories may swear by them, they lack the data to substantiate any theory so far.

    Therefore the purpose of this thread will be to post actual, hardcore data from ingame, for analysis - following a strict set of rules.

    I will share the data I have collected thus far at the end of this post, but I would first like to explain my approach to this task:

    I decided to analyse the percent chance to hit your opponent with regular hits [no specials, no nanos, etc] in order to determine the
    relative effect of each variable on the percent chance to hit equation.

    Variables of Interest
    Defender:
    - Evade of interest (dodge rngd or evade clsc depending on attacker weapon type)
    - Add All Defensive modifier, including research, perks, gear, towers...
    - Position of Defender Agg/Def Bar

    Attacker:
    - Weapon Attack Skill (as shown in IP arranging window - base attack skill)
    - Attack Rating (as shown in Stats window, base attack skill + add all offense modifier)
    - Position of Attacker Agg/Def Bar

    and, of course:
    - The number of hits Attacker Lands on Defender
    - The number of misses Attacker makes on Defender
    [which combined, will give you total number of attack attempts made]
    Percent Chance to Hit = (Hits) / (Hits + Misses) or (Hits) / (Total Attacks)

    While some variables above may seem odd to record, such as attacker weapon attack skill, and attacker agg/def bar position, it is important to make note of them. It is unknown whether a point of Add All Offense has the same effect as a point of weapon skill on chance to hit. It seems likely by intuition that it is equal, but we can't rule out the possibility that it is not. Similarly it is difficult to say for sure whether attacker agg/def bar position also has an effect on the frequency of hits landing vs missing on your opponent.


    Method
    After doing some inital tests and fooling around with statstical error calculations, I realized that 100, 200, even 500 total attack attempts was not going to be enough to eliminate the wide range of error possible. I decided to perform tests with at least 1000 attack attempts, in order to get a more correct percentage, not due to random chance. Ideally 10,000, or even greater, would give more precise results but it would take roughly 5 hours to perform one test like that, so this is simply constrained by time.

    I believe the best way to find out the effect of one variable on the hit/miss ratio is simply to keep all other variables constant, while you slightly alter just the one variable and take multiple test readings at different values. This way, you acquire a range of data that shows the change in hit/miss frequency based solely on variable X.

    How I performed these tests was by creating a log window on the defender, which logged only other's hits and misses - allowing attacker to hit defender for about half an hour - then copy/pasting the log into word and doing a replacement search for "Bla hit " and "Bla tried to hit " - word is smart and tells you how many replacements it made in the document (im sure you could do this with some damagedumper like aoparser even, but i was just too lazy to dig my old dumper up). Log was obviously wiped after every test run, in preparation for the next.

    Current Data
    Since I can't seem to think of anything else to talk about, I'll go ahead and post my initial results, where I tried to alter different sets of variables to see their effect on hit/miss ratio.

    Code:
    					Agg/Def Bar Position
    Weap Skill	AR	Evade	AAD	Defender	Attacker	Hits	Misses	Total Shots	% Shots Landed
    1763		1900	2209	440	50		100		631	545	1176		53.66
    1763		1900	2209	670	50		100		611	582	1193		51.22
    1763		1900	2209	1060	50		100		1230	1512	2742		44.86
    1763		1900	2209	1280	50		100		619	963	1582		39.13
    1763		1900	2209	1540	50		100		396	770	1166		33.96
    1763		1900	2209	1825	50		100		378	808	1186		31.87
    1763		1900	2209	2540	50		100		312	944	1256		24.84
    1763		1900	1729	1540	50		100		657	1090	1747		37.61
    1763		1900	1751	1060	50		100		854	940	1794		47.60
    1763		1900	2532	1060	50		100		412	785	1197		34.42
    1763		1900	2532	1360	50		100		384	842	1226		31.32
    1763		1900	2532	1540	50		100		335	879	1214		27.59
    1763		1900	2209	1060	88		100		533	685	1218		43.76
    1763		1900	1729	1540	88		100		525	690	1215		43.21
    1763		1900	2209	1060	0		100		345	888	1233		27.98
    1763		1900	1729	1540	0		100		411	925	1336		30.76
    
    Where Full Agg = 100, and Full Def = 0
    Feel free to analyse those results in any way you'd like - I excel graphed the hell out of them, calculated the error values, etc etc and didn't find any easy-to-identify patterns. Then again I'm not too great with stats, so I'm hoping to catch the eye of someone curious, like me, with more knowhow, hehe.

    Please try to keep random theories and speculation out of this thread unless it is based on data somehow, and if so, please provide data to back up your argument.

    Let's do this scientifically, once and for all
    Last edited by Threeze; May 9th, 2008 at 04:56:44.
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  2. #2
    reserved... just in case
    Threeze - 220/24/69 Neutral Fixer [Old New E], [Old Old E]
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  3. #3
    i know that 1 aad adds to 1 defense, and evades adds 1 to defense if you are 50% agg/def , if oyu are full def than they add 1.3 and if you are full agg they add 0.7.
    But dont know the chance to hit/miss mechanics.
    Phear the chiprel!

  4. #4
    it's not written down nor approved by funcom,this was just a players guess.

    i think it's more like aad gets multiplied with evades in some way to get the real defense
    this even would explain why you get hit with a ga and no evades as the multiplier is big but the otehr part,evades,aren't so you will see an effect because ga buffs evades too but if you don't skill evades you won't see that much difference

    and ofc,perk checks are another thing,there you are right,the aad just gets add up to the evades

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Fixerwink View Post
    i know that 1 aad adds to 1 defense, and evades adds 1 to defense if you are 50% agg/def , if oyu are full def than they add 1.3 and if you are full agg they add 0.7.
    But dont know the chance to hit/miss mechanics.
    Please don't bother posting junk like this unless you can back it up with FC dev quotes or meaningful data.

  6. #6
    Looked data and one thing I noticed about aggdef bar setting.

    Take a look at these lines:
    Code:
    Weap Skill	AR	Evade	AAD	Defender	Attacker	Hits	Misses	Total Shots	% Shots Landed
    1763		1900	2209	1060	50		100		1230	1512	2742		44.86%
    1763		1900	2209	1060	0		100		345	888	1233		27.98%
    Defender lowering aggdef from 50 to 0 decreased hit amounts from 44.86% to 27.98% ie. there was change of 14%

    and then take a look at these lines:
    Code:
    Weap Skill	AR	Evade	AAD	Defender	Attacker	Hits	Misses	Total Shots	% Shots Landed
    1763		1900	1729	1540	50		100		657	1090	1747		37.61%
    1763		1900	1729	1540	0		100		411	925	1336		30.76%
    1763		1900	1729	1540	88		100		525	690	1215		43.21
    Now the defender decreased hit amounts from 37.61% to 30.76% ie. there was change of about 7%.

    The interesting part with these numbers is that in first situation evades are about 500 higher while in the second setting AAD is about 500 higher. So when it comes to Aggdef bar, seems evades have bigger effect than AAD if raised same amount. Verifying this would require more test runs with different Evades/AAD values. Above data suggests that 1 evade = 2 AAD when it comes to Aggdef bar setting.

    Code:
    Weap Skill	AR	Evade	AAD	Defender	Attacker	Hits	Misses	Total Shots	% Shots Landed
    1763		1900	1729	1540	0		100		411	925	1336		30.76%
    1763		1900	1729	1540	50		100		657	1090	1747		37.61%
    1763		1900	1729	1540	88		100		525	690	1215		43.21
    Now with these values the only changing variable is defender's Aggdef bar. There's about 6.85% change when lowering aggdef from 50 to 0 and there's about 5.6% change when increasing aggdef from 50 to 88. If the defender's aggdef would have been at 100, seems like hits getting through would have been increased roughly about 7% as well from 50 aggdef bar setting just like when getting about 7% less hits when dropping aggdef from 50 to 0.
    Last edited by Galilei; May 9th, 2008 at 12:26:33.

  7. #7
    I should point out, some people have suggested that 1 point of AAD = 1 point of evades, so i tested the chance to be hit with AAD+Evades = Certain number, then changing AAD and Evades, but making sure they add up to the same number still, and this is the result I got:

    In the following, "Evade Rating" = Evade + AAD

    Code:
    AR	Evade	AAD	"Evade Rating"	Defender	Attacker	Hits	Misses	Total Shots	% Shots Landed
    1900	2209	1060	3269		88		100		533	685	1218		43.76
    1900	1729	1540	3269		88		100		525	690	1215		43.21
    
    1900	2209	1060	3269		50		100		1230	1512	2742		44.86
    1900	1729	1540	3269		50		100		657	1090	1747		37.61
    
    1900	2209	1060	3269		0		100		345	888	1233		27.98
    1900	1729	1540	3269		0		100		411	925	1336		30.76
    I think you can see why I became confused... I'm fairly certain that error is skewing these results, but it's hard to tell where.
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  8. #8
    I think this topic is inspiring and have started running a few tests of my own based on your method. Im using level 2 characters to test a multiple setup of agg/def settings on the different chars. The plan is increase skills one step at a time and use joint clan shoulderpads to adjust aad on the character being hit to see how this changer % of hits. I'll start with 6 weapon skill 0 aao on attacker and 6 evade 0 aad on the defender. Then changing aad, aao and agg/def bar variables. When i have enough samples I'll move on to 7 weapon skill vs 6 evades and continues until the level caps wont let me increase weapon skill further. After that I plan to turn this around adn test 6 weapon skill against 7 evades and continue up. hopefully I'll get around trying all the combinations of this that lvl 2 allows for.

    There is also the possiblity to include use of proficiency and expertise nanos to test an even greater range here.

    However there are few things I came to think of.

    1. How do you make sure that the agg/def bar are set to exactly 50%?
    2. I think it could be interesting to also study the number of critical hits to see if they are effected by agg/def bar, evades and aad. Although this occurance might be so random that it will require alot of samples. Maybe it should be the next step after the to hit % formulae has been figured out.


    I'm also not sure if I'll have the patience to run as many attacks as you are but maybe I will eventually. Yes, I do know that a large number of samples are required to get as good results as possible. it's just a matter of patience and how much time I'm willing to devote to this.

    It's also a bit early to give any numbers from my tests since there is still a lot to try.
    Last edited by Sleincour; May 9th, 2008 at 21:17:08.
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  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Sleincour View Post
    1. How do you make sure that the agg/def bar are set to exactly 50%?
    2. I think it could be interesting to also study the number of critical hits to see if they are effected by agg/def bar, evades and aad. Although this occurance might be so random that it will require alot of samples. Maybe it should be the next step after the to hit % formulae has been figured out.
    Heh, first off, good idea - my original data samples, which i didn't post, were from level 1 and eventually level 2 characters with about 100-200 attacks per test [hint: vegabond cloak was involved for AAD comparison] - end result was somewhat disapointing, though, as it didn't make very much sense and it didn't reflect higher-end attack rating, evades, or AAD very well.

    Edit: found that older data

    Code:
    AR	Evade	AAD	Defender	Attacker	Hits	Misses	Total Shots	% Shots Landed
    7	7	0	100		100		239	98	337		70.92
    7	7	35	100		100		131	175	306		42.81
    11	7	35	100		100		148	146	294		50.34
    11	14	35	100		100		127	183	310		40.97
    12	12	0	50		50		501	179	680		73.68
    12	12	0	0		100		740	363	1103		67.09
    12	12	0	50		100		979	363	1342		72.95
    12	12	0	100		100		791	290	1081		73.17
    12	8	0	50		100		784	249	1033		75.90
    15	0	35	100		100		696	335	1031		67.51
    15	0	0	100		100		627	165	792		79.17

    For agg/def bar accuracy, i actually took a screenshot from ingame, plopped it in photoshop, and drew a vertical line where the %age i wanted was along the bar... so I zoomed in and resized the bar so it was 100 pixels wide, and made a line vertically at 50 or 88 pixels across, or whatever have you. Honestly though, I wouldn't worry if you're in range of 5% off since it's very difficult to determine exactly.
    I suggest ignoring agg/def bar entirely and set it at a fixed value, and do tests based on other variables first - that way you don't have to worry about agg/def bar interference (unless you specifically want to see it's effect).

    As far as critical hits go, the defender I used was my 220 fixer because I could manipulate AAD the easiest on her - which means I often had the -80% crit perk running.. so although it's a good idea, i dont have any data for it x]

    p.s. if anyone has any ideas for a couple test runs, with similar number ranges posted above to compare certain things, i can be convinced to run some more tests
    Last edited by Threeze; May 9th, 2008 at 23:46:09.
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  10. #10
    Bump for the awesome effort.

    I definitely agree on leaving agg/def alone until we know more. But that depends, is 87.5% *(default) neutral, or is 50% neutral?

    WTB a clicksaver-like program that moves aggdef to exact percentages. It shouldn't be too hard to do, since the bar's location is fixed in the default GUI, and Clicksaver does basically the same thing with mission sliders.

  11. #11
    about agg/def bar
    it's not a difference whether it's at 50 or 55%
    there aren't so many steps,just like 0 12.5 25 37.5 50 etc

  12. #12
    Only because Auno has it that way doesn't mean that's actually how it is.

    Although if it were broken up into steps that would make testing a lot easier.

  13. #13
    I gave it a try and the best I could come up with for now is:

    %hits = 0.75*AR / [ (150-slider)/100*evades + 1.33*AAD]

    This roughly follows the first data set you posted (an average error of 2.5%), but it completely conflicts with the lowbie data sample.

    I didn't try any other formulas and just went with the one that has always seemed the most likely to me, then I played a bit with the constants to make it fit better. With a least squares method I could probably find better constants, but I suspect there's more to the hit calculation than just this formula, so LSQ would probably be a waste of effort+time.


    Some stuff I suspect:
    * The AGG/DEF slider works with larger steps instead of 1.
    * The lowbie data suggests everyone has a certain base defense and/or AR.
    * The base 3% hitchance messes with the numbers

    2nd edit: /azerty
    Last edited by Josephina; May 10th, 2008 at 21:14:58.

  14. #14
    It is a notable effort to undertake the solving of the evade stuff. But:

    Quote Originally Posted by Threeze View Post
    the evade formula is the last, and only true mystery left in the game
    How... about... THIS?
    Eroz, finally 220/26/70 Adventurer & proud General of Regulators on ex-RK2 (outdated) equip
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  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by eroz_c View Post
    How... about... THIS?
    Heh ;p That's a valid point but, in my humble opinion, the mystery behind that was a developer got extremely lazy. ;p
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  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Threeze View Post
    I think you can see why I became confused... I'm fairly certain that error is skewing these results, but it's hard to tell where.
    Did you see Sillirion's post about them looking in the Concealment/Perception issue? Not only he says they think they discovered a very old bug, but the way he explained it left many in doubt that they're seeing what the rest of us are seeing (in game).

    So, I'm actually scared that we might find out how screwed the game mechanics are if we were to look into it, regarding evades, AAD, nano resist and so on.

    Regarding that snippet of statistical data, given the same AR, AAD and Evades, the shot % was practically the same when agg-def was set at 88% and 50% (and higher than the shot % when the defender was with the bar at 0). Can you post the results from the same setups but with the defender at 100% agg? Maybe that 50% was more like 50.01% and the agg-def bar only affects the shot chance depending if it's somewhere below or over the 50% point.
    Last edited by landdog; May 12th, 2008 at 05:39:35.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Josephina View Post
    This roughly follows the first data set you posted (an average error of 2.5%), but it completely conflicts with the lowbie data sample.
    what about is attacker and the defender lvl , it could have an effect on the chance to hit.

    mabye the equation have % attacker lvl and % deffender lvl , that can make lowbie data defrent than hibie

  18. #18
    One of the givens of the test is that the attacker was at 100% aggdef. This begs the question of "Are there AR modifiers for the aggdef bar?" and if that is true then the AR versus Evades are a lost.

    Also look in the MA forums at Chronita's MA guide and you will see some explanation of the aggdef bar.

    The next issue I have is pre-SL the old back yards had a help screen pop up that explained the agdef bar would make you defend better at full def while hitting less or attack better and defend less at full agg. It also stated that in between would have varying effects.

    An another issue. Pre-SL they re-worked the evade system and I was playing on test server at the time with "No-Evades Diff". Diff's character was almost level 200 at the time and had zero evades besides trickle down. Why? They did not matter pre evade re-work. Which was pre-subway and pre-totw as well. After the evade fix it was clear they worked. And that is also when they started adding AAD/AAO items outside of the rings that dropped.

    Now at no time did they give us any clear information on how they worked other than they were working now. Having looked at the perks such as evasive stance which adds a dms modifier (AAD) and acrobat which adds evades only. I have come to believe that AAO is what we all think. A direct add to all offensive skills which I suspect includes nano attack skills (another discussion). AAD apears to add a percentage to the base skill.

    And here is where I think AAD works its trickery.

    Total_Evades = Bases_Evades + Evades_Buffs + Implants + ( Base_Evades * (AAD/10) )

    But then I might be wrong. Why? Jobe bracer. Adds 5 AAD. Go fight with and without it with xp gain turned off. Against same level mobs 5 AAD makes a difference. Under my formula that would have been .5 % addition and that would not really be that much. what 1 evade at 20 skill. 2 evades at 40 skill. Well 2 evades at 40 skill is 42 evades.

    So is 42 evades versus 40 evades so much a difference in the to hit calc that it is visible? I do not know. But given the miminal information that was put out during the evade re-work I feel FC wants this to remain a secret.

    The big questions are

    aggdef affect AR? dont know yet.
    aggdef affect weapon speed? yes that is visible.
    aggdef affect evades? yeah but still a mystery somewhat.
    aggdef affect nano-resist? no clue.
    aggdef affect to hit calc? don't know but I would bet yes.

    What we know for sort of fact?
    base to hit chance is always 3%. Have seen alot on this over years. 3% seems right.
    if there is always a 3% chance to hit then evades can never be 100% effective. To test take two toon to level 50 and total ipr one and do no raise that ones skills. start a fight and the ipr toon should at some point score a hit with their solar powered weapon.

    I look forward to more data being presented.
    Lheann
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  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by buka View Post
    what about is attacker and the defender lvl , it could have an effect on the chance to hit.

    mabye the equation have % attacker lvl and % deffender lvl , that can make lowbie data defrent than hibie
    The attacker+defender level could certainly have an influence, but since that level could be included in the total AR calculation of each weapon (xx% smg + yy% level is probably possible in weapons, just never used before), I don't see any reason why FC would include it in the formula itself.

    Also, the lowbie test data was mostly situated around a 75% chance for tests with low numbers. And the actual evades+AR seemed to be too low (except for the 35 aad) to change that much, which is why I thought there was some base defense+base AR ((base AR+low player stats)/(base defense+low player stats)~=0.75).

    Another thing that I've seen in lots of games, is that strength has an influence on melee to-hit-chance, and agility on the ranged chance. But again, this seems unlikely to be put in a formula since it can be put in the AR of the weapon.


    Quote Originally Posted by Lheann View Post
    Total_Evades = Bases_Evades + Evades_Buffs + Implants + ( Base_Evades * (AAD/10) )
    Quote Originally Posted by Threeze View Post
    15 0 35 100 100 696 335 1031 67.51
    0 evades and 35 aad, yet it had an influence on the %shots landed, AAD is not a multiplicator of evades imo. It might work partially that way though ( what I mean with partial: "AAD*(1+evades/1000)" or something).


    Quote Originally Posted by Lheann View Post
    aggdef affect nano-resist? no clue.
    It does, ask a doc


    Summary for agg/def bar in Chronita's guide:
    * agg/def bar works in steps of 1/8 for weapon speed
    * agg/def bar its neutral point is at 87.5% for weapon speed
    * a sentimental mention of the agg/def bar having a drastic influence on %crits, I miss those days ;(

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Josephina View Post
    Also, the lowbie test data was mostly situated around a 75% chance for tests with low numbers. And the actual evades+AR seemed to be too low (except for the 35 aad) to change that much, which is why I thought there was some base defense+base AR ((base AR+low player stats)/(base defense+low player stats)~=0.75).(
    level 2 char 6 weap skill - no AAO versus level 2 char 6 evade - no AAD, both chars att full agg has given me very close to 72% chance to hit in my recent testing, the data consist of close to 1000 attacks so it should be fairly accurate.

    Code:
    weap skill	AAO	att agg bar	def evade	aad	def agg bar	hits	misses	total	hit %
    6	          0	     100	   6	         0	  100	        654	254	908	72,03%
    
    100 agg bar stands for full agg

    I have also started to test adding 5 and 10 AAD but I don't have enough attacks and dont remember the numbers to shown so far. But I think there is a difference. More exact data will be included while I get home.

    My ambition is also to test the full agg/def settings using the above settings.
    Last edited by Sleincour; May 13th, 2008 at 16:53:00. Reason: input the actual data and some small corrections due to nor remembering everything exactly when at work
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    Psicharpax 100/6 Nanomage Metaphysicist
    Sleina 100/7 Opifex Fixer

    Veteran of the Scandinavian RK1 clan guild ..:Nordic Alliance:..

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