No token if not 100% chance - bug or bad luck??

[______________Lyriam]

Since the 14.4 patch, i can only get a token if i clean 100% of the mission, i can even miss one single mob or i dont get it. I tracked a bit the last missions i did...sticked with not cleaning it all thinking it was bad luck but i dont think so...

Solo Team Miss QL 49 : 86% completion, no token
Miss QL 56 : 93% completion, no token
Miss QL 55 : 97% completion, no token
Solo Team Miss QL 50 : 89% completion, no token
Miss QL 55 : 91% completion, no token
Miss QL 54 : 96% completion, no token

Miss QL 53 : 100% completion, token ok
Solo Team Miss QL 52 : 100% completion, token ok

That is just the missions i wrote down starting to get frustrated not getting the tokens..i dont know how many before that were "no token" missions, but i assume at least 10 of them. I can understand the odds when you top at 50% chance..you got 1 chance out of 2 to get it..but above 80% or even 90% chance, no token for AT LEAST 16 missions in a row doesnt seem only bad luck.

When my fixer friend tells me he got a token @ 1% completion just because he had to kill a mob while blitzing, i just wanna cry

[___________Solinarus]

I've noticed that the % chance doesn't seem to reflect reality as well, although on a much smaller sample. Both me and an RL friend have hit 95% on a few missions and not gotten tokens. I haven't dared go less than 100% lately because of that. Glad to hear it's not just me .

Although you don't have to be at 100%, it just seems that if you're not, the % doesn't actually reflect your chances of getting a token. A friend got a token at around 65% last night.

[Kissysuzuki]

I got a token 1 night as loot on a body. that was nice.


but on the whole I agree unless I'm at 100% I rarely see a token.

Especially anoying when the Boss is in the way of geting to the rest of the MOBs.

The numbr of time I've had to run around like a headless chicken just to get him out of the way is unreal.

[MaDezzie]

On 50% solo missions, I noticed that if I was under say 95%, I wouldn't get a token. On harder solo missions, say 75% or higher, even if I only get to 50% complete, I usually get a token. For team missions, since they're always much much harder then 50%, we always get tokens if we hit past the 75% complete mark.

Difficulty seems to have a much bigger factor then just % completed, from my experience anyway.

-Dez

[____________Halfdeck]

100% chance means you got 0% chance you wont get a token. 0% chance means you got a 100% you wont get a token... Anything in between is in the roll of the dice.

Half

[____________Fakonamo]

I got a token for 3%

Also, I usually get one for 80%+

[thresholdrpg]

I NEVER get a token if the chance is in the 70s or 80s.

If the chance is in the 90s, I have about a 50% chance of getting a token.

The system is completely whacked.

[____________RedSonja]

If the chance is in the 90s, I have about a 50% chance of getting a token

LOL
No, if your chance is in the 90's than you have a 90%+ chance of getting the token.
Look, basically speaking if you did infinite missions and attempted to complete the mission at lots of different levels, 1% through to 99% and worked out when you got a token and when you didn't then it would all add up perfectly.
Even if you did 100 missions in a row and each mission you took to 99% and on each of those missions you failed to get a token then it's just bad luck.
It's the eqivalent of rolling a 1 on a D100 100 times in a row, unlikely but still very theoretically possible.

[____________IronTide]

No, if someone did 100 99% missions and got 0 tokens... they could (rightfully) expect with a high degree of certainty that the 99% chance is not an accurate predictor.

[____________Almidara]

I'd have to say if you rolled a 100 sided die 100 times and rolled a 1 every time, that would be far outside the acceptable logic of statistics.

Also, 10 missions does not an arguement make.

The chance of being at 83% 10 times and never getting a token is about the same as rolling a standard die 10 times and rolling 1 every time. Highly unlikely, but maybe AO is telling you to go to Vegas.....or not to go to Vegas!


FYI: The chances of rolling a 100 sided die just 10 times and rolling 1 each time is less than the chance of winning the lottery and being struck by lighting in the same SECOND. Not kidding. Something like 100 quadrillion to 1.

[Kissysuzuki]

Originally posted by Almidara

FYI: The chances of rolling a 100 sided die just 10 times and rolling 1 each time is less than the chance of winning the lottery and being struck by lighting in the same SECOND. Not kidding. Something like 100 quadrillion to 1.

Correction just cos i'm bored.

Your mixed between chance and probability.

The chance of rolling a 1 on your 100 sided dice is exactly the same every time. however it is highly unprobable that you'll roll 1, 100 times.

(for more in depth explainations read the hitchhikers guide to the galaxy.)

[Dauhuai]

I have not noticed this problem much except that I think Dezzie is right that harder missions add a modifier. Normally I figure I have to be 87%+ to have a good chance at a token and 90% plus to feel confident. It does not seem that 70% yields a token 70% of the time. However since I am fairly anal about getting my token I have not tested it out much.

The other day though I decided to blitz a much higher level mission to get the item, planned on the old run in, grab and escape or not but I go my item method. When I got in it was one of those beautifully sized missions which are small but large enough to yield a token. My favorites since I solo for tokens and money and team for XP. Instead of blitzing I fought dark oranges and reds (being a doc I was pretty impressed with myself too). Found that I was doing fine but the last room had three dark reds in it. Due to the size of the mission and the fact that I avoided most red mobs I could my % was only 35-45% (cannot remember exactly). Finished mission and got token. Surprised and happy.

I know this doesn't help but it is what I experienced.

[engelstein]

Funcom's RNG has elsewhere been observed to be streaky.

[____________Necron99]

Originally posted by Almidara
I'd have to say if you rolled a 100 sided die 100 times and rolled a 1 every time, that would be far outside the acceptable logic of statistics.

Heh I used to have a 20-sider like that

[____________Finfarin]

Just last night I also experienced this. 4 Missions in a row ended at between 97-99% and , no token.

Most teams Im on dont go less than 100%, but if the last remaining mob is 4 floors below in some corner someone missed then usually people dont want to go back for it.

Ive lost track of how many times ive not gotten a token if the mission ends between 97%-99% Ive probably run a good 100 missions in the past weeks...odds would say that worst case about 3 of them i wouldnt have gotten a token, but 4 in one sitting? something is definately wrong with that! It alost seems that if its less 100% I have less than a 50% to get a token reward.

[ThePartisan]

Got a token at 63% 2 days ago

w000t

[____________RedSonja]

4 missions last night:

100% - Token given
88% - Token Given
92% - Token Given
98% - No token given

Swings and roundabouts, looks fair to me.

[Dauhuai]

I have been trying to keep track closer, of course most teams shoot for 100%.

So far

98% token
89% token
60% (solo) no token
48% (solo) token, go figure
87% token

Maybe FC just likes me cause I'm a handsome Atrox Doc.

[LittleHorror]

I tried a mission some levels above my own level.

I started to kill mobs in the mission until i hit 9% than i realized that i had to log soon so i blitzed it for the mission objective.

After i got the mission objective (search for person) i got a token at 9% this happend around 1 week ago