He said ship too, so it's 50 bosses not 25Originally Posted by McKnuckleSamwich
He said ship too, so it's 50 bosses not 25
This is correct. I've done ship every time.He said ship too, so it's 50 bosses not 25
yes.
That's what I'm saying. If you do gen+admiral/recruitment director every time, 9/25 is bots is exactly within the "expected" range.
I wish michi changed the requirements of 4 ppl in order to board ship
Now that i i think about it, are the requirements that everybody has to have LE expansion ? If not i guess i could make a few 160+ froobs just to get an invite while i dual log my regular accounts.
But i doubt it's that easy, any1 that could confirm?
Ai is required for ship invite.
this is to overdo things, dont like this at all.
we dont ned more stats and procs in ao with random factors, we ned more stability for pvp and that armor would not do that and only benefit pvm.
nothing in ar and evades should be touched, the game itself is way to easy. 3 players in tryhard can solo beast wich used to require 4-5 teams and usualy they got wiped.
pvm is way to easy, it shoudlnt be this easy. the game is so easy that there is no challange at all to farm or kill bosses wich kinda makes the game boring.
In addition, the proposed full set benefits will only further kill off armor/equipment diversity
TWADER - Rimor Clanner - 220/31/70 - Trox Trader of Quetzalcoatl
ATLANTEAN SERVER
The Firm
Godt Saa... Eller - STEEL!
House Maadiah
RIMOR SERVER
The Syndicate
Quetzlcoat
What range do you expect?
I don't have tonnes of time for math atm, but if the same "established" drop rates still apply (10% of bot on ground, 10% chance of recruitment director, 10% chance of bots on admiral), it's a 72.9% chance you won't get bots on any given raid.
that means the p for success is (1-0.729) = 0.271
For me, the expected range is anywhere between the 5th and 95th percentile for drops - outside of this is in the "non-likely" percentiles.
In this case we can establish the range of percentiles by solving a probability mass equation. Since we're actually working with a Bernoulli trial (there are only two outcomes: success or failure with regards to a bot drop), we have to use the probability mass function f of this distribution, over possible outcomes k.
f(k;p) = p^k (1-p)^{1-k} k in {0,1}
One thing to note in Bernoulli trials is the maximum likelihood estimator of p based on a random sample is the sample mean.
In this case the sample mean is p = 0.271
Note that the observed drop rate is 9/25 which is 0.36 which is quite close to the mean. So we can eyeball it and say that the drop rate is in "expected range", however, we can go on to prove it - this however does depend inherently on what your expectations are. So, perhaps it's better to find out what the actual probability is to get either more or less than 9/25 since that is a better indication - myself, I'll stick with P5/P95 for sake of reasoning.
So, in the expression above,
k = number of successes (# number of bots dropped)
p = probability of success (I.e. bot drops)
Next we need to find all possible permutations of k using k permutations of n, where n is the number of trials (25) and n and k are positive integers and k is a subset of n.
C(n,k)= n!/(n-k)!k!
Which gives us our binomial coefficients (n over k)
The only problem is that we now actually have to do some math.
We have to assume we're working with discrete values here, and I'm going to go out on a limb here because the math doesn't work if you say you can get MORE than one drop per raid.
Anyway, we need to do 9 calculations:
P(0,25) = C(n,k)= n!/(n-k)!k! * f(k;p) = p^k (1-p)^{n-k} k in {n,1} for k=0, n=25, p=0.271 by the way, this gives us our probability of getting 0 drops in 25 full raids: 3.7e-4 = 0.036%
P(1,25) =n!/(n-k)!k! *p^k (1-p)^{n-k} k in {n,1} for k=1, n=25, p=0.271 = 3.44e-3
P(2,25) = 25!/(25-2)!2! * 0.271^2 *(1-0.271)^(25-2) = 0.011
P(3,25) = 25!/(25-3)!3! * 0.271^3 *(1-0.271)^(25-3) = 0.044
P(4,25) = 25!/(25-4)!4! * 0.271^4 *(1-0.271)^(25-4) = 0.089
P(5,25) = 0.1395
P(6,25) = 0.1729
P(7,25) = 0.1744
P(8,25) = 0.1459
P(9,25) = 0.1025
Ok, so interestingly (and obviously) the probability to get 8/25 drops and 9/25 drops starts to go DOWN, and 6/26-7/25 drops is the highest individual probability.
Of course, we could back check this easily: if we know the chance is 0.271, then multiply that probability by n (25) to get the most likely occurrence:
0.271*25 = 6.775, hence, 7 is the most likely occurrence, with 6 being close behind (that makes sense right?)
Ok, so finally I can now tell you, based on the calculations above the discrete probability of getting 9/25 drops, and the discrete probability is 0.102
As I mentioned before though, it's easier to talk about it in terms of probability of getting between 0 and 9 drops, say, which is simply the cumulative probability of all discreet probabilities (i.e. P(0,25) + P(1,25)+...+P(9,25)) and that is 88%
Now, interestingly...
The "eyeball" check was good, in fact, this drop rate of 9/25 bots is in the 88th percentile of chance which, granted is certainly on the high side, but still within the 5th to 95th percentile.
One final note on this however, and it's this calculation, as mentioned before does NOT take into account double drops on any raid. Therefore, if the # of bots reported is more than 1 per raid (which is occasionally the case) then the percentile is biased to the high side.
If the reported number of bots includes 1 double drop, then the actual number of bot drops per raids is 8/25 and that is in the 78th percentile, for example.
It's also exactly what you'd expect for a 20% bot rate drop. I thought it was supposed to be changed from 10%.
No idea about that. Is 20% stated somewhere or is that conjecture?
this is just to make someting big out of nothing agein, i dont see the point in this.
It's just what Art's drop rate is. Wouldn't expect it to stay at 10% after the change, so I'm guessing it was increased. It's a small sample though so hard to know.
@ Le-quack, that's exactly the point. The posted drop rate (9/25) is "normal" (not an outlier)
@Srompu I would assume it's been raised too.. but by how much?
Do you have any evidence that it's been boosted to 20%? If it's confidential or whatever, I get that. But we're allowed to guess until the cows come home :P
some1 needs to force it out of michi, and the old drop % was 7%, means posted that in some post a few years ago.
Pom pom pom... From Thursday, 15 grounds solo, 0 lead, 8 grounds with friends, 1 lead. We can't get enough people to board ship with holidays - 4ish %
Previous record was 7 leads on 80ish ttl7 solo grounds (funny part is I got 3 240+ supples in 4 grounds ^^), 1 lead every 5ish ground on TTL3 (only sup and obs though I wanted str and still no AI1 CR in 70ish grounds !) - 9% and 20%
Within the "adjustment" week I stopped after 40ish ttl7 grounds and 25 ttl3 grounds WITHOUT a single lead - 0%, I found it fun to read people here saying leads dropped like candy...
Now, my city is "small" (but 300) and our org's is large full 300. I'm usually dualin to push gen. Don't know if numbers could depend on such things.
So, yeah, it might not be enough to make a stat, and coon room is a 100% lead afaik, but whatever formula or %, it's just a pure matter of damn luck. Not that I feel like an exception, chatting with buds around (not the ones to brag or lie).
(EDIT : Add 2 grounds to get to a staight shiny 1/25 - 4%. Adjusted they said ?)
(EDIT2 : 3 more grounds and a ship - 1/29. Funny to think a drop on next round would get things close to that 7%, then another one close to 10)
Last edited by appolonia; Jul 14th, 2015 at 00:06:20. Reason: typos
220/70/30 OpiFix - Useless PVM Ex RK Queen
220/80/30 TroxDoc - Alpha Brain @soon !
220/80/30 SoliEngi - TSing everything
220/70/30 SoliTrader - MA >>>> Shottie
220/80/30 Crat - Why the hell do other profs still exist ?
And tons of alts !
If bots are still an issue maybe FC should consider adding them to the loot table of APF's 13/28/35...all of which are doable with a team or two and would breathe a little more life into those playfields. I know I'd rather do an APF run with my org or some friends vs sitting in a city pounding slow waves of aliens.
It's been suggested at least 10 times.
I think a lot of people agree with you. For a long time I would have been more than happy to participate in a group raid to APF for the sole purpose of collecting a decent QL bot I might need. But don't forget that any time you add a supply to the game, it brings the price down just a little bit (or a lot) more depending on how active that supply/venue is.
The reality is for me, is that there are actually more than enough "bot" collectors. So many people I know are "farmers" that check the gen corpse for bots, pick up the red things and maybe check what QL the dark disk of cloudy crystal, and pretty much everything else is trash.. But anyone who actually BUILDS armour, knows that there are far more chances for a decent drop.
For example, I've started doing raids on my low TL4's since I've found there's a good chance for a QL 141 clump on the hackers. If I get 1 141 clump in a raid, it's worth more than strong or supple dropping off the gen.
So, for me the bots aren't the problem. The problem is getting the other parts in a quantity enough that warrants the use and price of the bots.
Hell, to be perfectly honest, In the last 3-4 years, I've never once not been able to find a bot I need, but I can guarantee that I've come up woefully short on the exact QL clump I want at LEAST 10 times (which resulted, in some cases, in some excessively time consuming chain raiding to get that clump I needed when all other sources failed.
Simply, the number of raids being conducted where the hackers can drop QL 69-75 clumps, QL 141-150 clumps and QL 203 clumps is too low. Every other clump level is sufficiently populated with raiding opportunities that the supply meets or exceeds the demand.
And, as I've mentioned, the bots aren't actually in demand as much as the price currently lets on. There are oodles of bots in GMI right now.
The recent price adjustment on bots is, in a large part, due to the fact that many MB's have just finished setting up, the relative importance of NT's/MP's (nukers) in TL7 PVP/DPS setups, and the fundamental ease of operation of an MB in AI raids (little to no movement needed, easy pew pew). So essentially, the market has dropped out on traditionally super high demand bots (supple/strong/obs) and the supply has greatly increased with more knowledge available in terms of raiding (don't do gen, do gen+ship for 150-200% better chance of bots), not to mention the broad proliferation of people using multiple accounts to generate ship chances (if not flat out MBing).
And the problem, in my eyes, is that these factors are significantly affecting TL7 and QL 220-QL 300 clumps lead bots and viralbots, but adversely affecting the production of lower QL clumps...
I'm on the fence; I feel like there are starting to be some other parts that are harder to find than the bots. In terms of actual rarity... there are some real doozies that are in much, much higher demand than the bots.
Then perhaps shake up quest rewards in s10/s7. Admittedly I haven't legitimately done s10 since it was nerfed before and I've never set foot in s7.
I always think about quest reward like the ado brain that yields a 160 yutto ncu. Implement something like that that provides a relatively passive way to help the demands of the market, but something that isn't totally abusable.
hmm now that is more interesting to me.
S10 gens drop so many augmentation huds that getting the base part is less difficult than finding the programming parts.
actually, the answer is pretty easy I think... all the mobs in S10 actually do drop clumps, but they don't drop armour clumps (mutated/pristine), they only drop typed clumps (as far as I know). there is almost zero use for the typed clumps in the QL they drop from the mobs in S10 (perhaps a few of the higher mobs might drop a typed clump that could make a 199 pistol or axe or something)... but imo, if those typed clumps were shifted to mut/prist, AND have a chance to drop kyr'ozch viralbots... then we'd be gold.
Also, do the same for trash mobs in APF's/S42.
Even a 1-2% drop rate on kyr'ozch viralbots would go a long way to providing an easy way to gather relevant materials for armour without making another big farming thing. The reality is, even when making low armour, these days, you end up using high QL kyr'ozch viralbots for each piece because they are what's available - and simply, the only place they drop is from AI raids.
Ya, I'm all for trash mobs dropping clumps of all types or at least mut/prist, and all trash mobs having a low chance for kyr viralbots. That would really flesh out the opportunities to gather these supplies for armour.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote