Bot Drop Curious

[cybertron]

I may be remembering wrong but I thought I remember a thread where someone from FC had posted it was supposed to be 10%, which is why I don't think it was community derived. Believe it was one of the threads where bot drop rate had been mistakenly nerfed...

Could be wrong though, but will have a look for it later

Edit: my forum Kung-fu is still strong, for an old man!
From Means himself confirming 10% drop rate, on ship gens at least, the way I read it but may be meant to include ground gens too
http://forums.anarchy-online.com/sho...3&postcount=43

So, not a random number out of nowhere, nor community derived either vhab!

Also found another thread where supposedly a gm actually relayed the 10% drop rate stat to players
http://forums.anarchy-online.com/sho...d.php?t=556535

[Lazy]

How many would you suggest?

ideally you'd need to look at the data for all the raids ever done and the drop rates for each bot type, but this isn't really possible. anywhere from about 1k raids and up and you'll be able to start taking luck out of the equation and start seeing statistical patterns. considering the number of raids done total since ai launched even 10k raid sample size is till tiny.

i recommend croudsourcing this and getting a good amount raid data (220 solo raids so that it's all nice and consistent) before starting to complain about drop rates being wrong.

To add my inexact "science" to the mix, before I left AO two years ago, I had logged about 1000 raids. I was getting bot drops about 16% of the time. Although I was told it is random, for some reason, I attracted Ilari more than Cha, so my rate of bots was skewed toward spiritual at nearly 4% and away from supple at only about 1%....

care to share the data you have on this? would be nice to have something to compare to when someone decides to actually put together a statistically significant chart for post-patch drop rates.

If we are questioning whether or not Funcom has changed the loot tables for AI Generals with the latest patch and/or the server merge and by doing so we are comparing our experience to see if it is in fact a Ninja change made by Funcom or just bad luck ...

based on the sample sizes posted so far it's the latter

Why does that mean this thread belongs in the Life on Rubika forums???

because that's where meaningless banter and whinging belongs

[Pennypacker]

I may be remembering wrong but I thought I remember a thread where someone from FC had posted it was supposed to be 10%, which is why I don't think it was community derived. Believe it was one of the threads where bot drop rate had been mistakenly nerfed...

Could be wrong though, but will have a look for it later

Edit: my forum Kung-fu is still strong, for an old man!
From Means himself confirming 10% drop rate, on ship gens at least, the way I read it but may be meant to include ground gens too
http://forums.anarchy-online.com/sho...3&postcount=43

So, not a random number out of nowhere, nor community derived either vhab!

Also found another thread where supposedly a gm actually relayed the 10% drop rate stat to players
http://forums.anarchy-online.com/sho...d.php?t=556535

The last link is really just a repost of what Means mentioned as far as i can tell. Nowhere is it said who or where it was said and as such shouldn't be taken into account. But as more than one person has said here, the amount of raids you guys are sampling from are way to low and to get a somewhat accurate result it needs to be on a whole nother level. atleast 1000+ will give a better picture.

[Liwa]

The last link is really just a repost of what Means mentioned as far as i can tell. Nowhere is it said who or where it was said and as such shouldn't be taken into account. But as more than one person has said here, the amount of raids you guys are sampling from are way to low and to get a somewhat accurate result it needs to be on a whole nother level. atleast 1000+ will give a better picture.

I see, so I am supposed to do 1000+ raids before I can tell if there is a problem with the drop-rates? That is like telling the public the new drug is safe until there are at least 100 or a 1000 deaths to indicate otherwise.

However, we did finally get a FC response that the drop rates were not intentionally changed ...

Thank you Vhab for responding ...

And thank you to the posters who think it is their place to call my posts meaningless ...

Kinnik

[Gorathon]

Well, to be blunt, you mentioned earlier that you had done 15 raids; because you didn't get a bot, you said that the 10% claim is wrong. If a single bot had dropped it'd've been very close to the claimed 10%. The fact that a single bot drop would've skewed the perception so drastically is a clear indication that more - much more - data is needed.

[Pennypacker]

I see, so I am supposed to do 1000+ raids before I can tell if there is a problem with the drop-rates? That is like telling the public the new drug is safe until there are at least 100 or a 1000 deaths to indicate otherwise.

And thank you to the posters who think it is their place to call my posts meaningless ...

When you post that bot droprates are broken after doing 15 raids your post are indeed meaningless. No offense.

You are atleast supposed to have a bit more data than those 15 raids to say there is a problem with the drop rates, it's been the same drop rate for aslong as AI has been out and I see no reason to change it but that is a different discussion altogether.

[Gatester]

You can determine a degree of error with a given sample size and see just how far off it is capable of being.

I've done samples of around 500 or so to test something, later increasing that sample size to over 1000, and the % rate of everything which occured shifted significantly (I believe by as much as 4% on the highest figure). Now imagine how far off it could be with a sample size as low as 100.


To give a precise example of how far off it could be, I once used 3 bags of ICE before, that is 71 city raids, with 0 bot drops. Now I have some logs from my city raids which occured after this, so let's see what sort of rate I have. I looted 7 viralbots (one double strong drop) out of 23 raids.

7 / 94 = 7.4%

My droprate during that 23 raid sample was about 30%, which means it was an unusually high frequency of bots as well. I also know that I went many raids after I stopped bothering to log without drop rates again. The double bot drop was also quite lucky, but reasonable for sample of about 100.

[Lazy]

I see so I am supposed to do 1000+ raids before I can tell if there is a problem with the drop-rates? That is like telling the public the new drug is safe until there are at least 100 or a 1000 deaths to indicate otherwise.

Isnt that how clinical trials work? They test the drug on 10's of 1000's of people to see what side effects are before releasing it to the public? Or would you rather they just test it 15 times, go "looks fine lol" and stamp an approval label on it?

What you did was the equivalent of flipping a coin 4 times and claiming someone nerfed tails because it landed heads 4 times.

I think the problem stems from you not understanding how probability works.

[Unkfix]

done 5 raids since merge, got 4 bots since merge
ground raids only... why do people make these topics still?

[Pennypacker]

done 5 raids since merge, got 4 bots since merge
ground raids only... why do people make these topics still?

Confirmed: 80% Droprate

[Unkfix]

Confirmed: 80% Droprate

More like confirmed, the droprates didn't change.

[cybertron]

The last link is really just a repost of what Means mentioned as far as i can tell. Nowhere is it said who or where it was said and as such shouldn't be taken into account..

*sigh* read it again then. Or better yet, here's the relevant extract:

The rate of drops is 1/10 for every general/admiral and 100% for a recruitment director.

The rate of drops for a raid is >2/10 or >20% since there are two opportunities for a drop on every raid (potentially).

The rate is GREATER than 20% because there is a random chance of a coon room which is a 100% drop rate, hence, if you raid successfully with both ground and ship every time, over time, you will gain LVB's more than 20% of the time.

These stats were relayed to me after I had petitioned over a claim that the city was malfunctioning. I had raided approximately 30 times as well without a single drop, and was seriously pissed. I talked to a GM, and got those numbers.

Ie. He got the numbers from a GM. If you want the name of the GM, take it up with noobas. I see no particular reason for him to have made this up. So yes, it seems we have heard from multiple FC sources what the supposed droprate is meant to be

it's been the same drop rate for aslong as AI has been out

That's just categorically wrong there. After AI was released, there was an issue with high level gen droprates which they admitted after a lot of, as you guys put it, "whining" on a similar thread to this.

While I agree that Kinnik's sample size is too small to derive anything of statistical significance, I also don't particularly agree with FC's stance of do more than 1000 raids, noting every drop, who was there, who wasn't there. If you see a problem there, THEN say something. In the meantime, thanks for testing this for us, here's a pat on the back for finding it. What do you mean you want the cru and time you spent on those 1000 raids back? You did it for the love of the game, not for loot.

Also its good that vhab has confirmed they haven't changed droprate intentionally. But let's face it, mistakes will and have happened(see boc droprate, earlier high ai gen droprate, and I'm sure plenty of others). If every "whine" thread was just ignored, those issues would never have been acknowledged and subsequently fixed. Again, I'm not saying that droprates has or hasn't changed, but I do advocate the sharing of data and information.

[Pennypacker]

*sigh* read it again then. Or better yet, here's the relevant extract:


Ie. He got the numbers from a GM. If you want the name of the GM, take it up with noobas. I see no particular reason for him to have made this up. So yes, it seems we have heard from multiple FC sources what the supposed droprate is meant to be

Ok, so it's still just a repost of what Means said on official forums with 10% droprate essentially ? the fact that someone typed it out in other words calcing some combined chances on ship etc aside, and ofcourse that coon room has 100%.

[Pennypacker]

While I agree that Kinnik's sample size is too small to derive anything of statistical significance, I also don't particular agree with FC's stance of do more than 1000 raids, noting every drop, who was there, who wasn't there. If you see a problem there, THEN say something. In the meantime, thanks for testing this for us, here's a pat on the back for finding it. What do you mean you want the cru and time you spent on those 1000 raids back? You did it for the love of the game, not for loot.

I'm all for saying something if you feel something is wrong, however I would like the actual whine to have some merit and not just be a post like: boohoo, i did 15 raids and didnt get a bot FML FC HATES ME FC FU

[cybertron]

Ok, so it's still just a repost of what Means said on official forums with 10% droprate essentially ? the fact that someone typed it out in other words calcing some combined chances on ship etc aside, and ofcourse that coon room has 100%.

Ok, now I’m not sure if you’re deliberately being obtuse or you’re just failing to comprehend the basic meaning there. Its right there in the piece you quoted “He got the numbers from a GM”. It’s not just a repost of what Means said, its a corroboration of what Means had said from an independent FC source ie. the GM, unless Means was also moonlighting as a GM sometimes, and if he was the GM involved, I’m sure noobas would have mentioned it.

The point being, we have two independent sources from FC(to simplify for people who have trouble understanding, the two are Means on a forum post and a separate GM who responded to a petition) who have communicated to the playerbase that the the drop rate was 10% which debunks the line from Vhab that the droprate being compared against is a “community-decided” droprate.

[Anarchic1]

the reason why FC doesn't tell us what the droprates are b/c they store it in a giant blob and are too lazy to parse it.

[Slayerphazon]

I heard that if you kill a gen with an arbalest it automatically drops a ql 300 supple bot regardless of its level and type.

[wyldebeast]

I heard that if you kill a gen with an arbalest it automatically drops a ql 300 supple bot regardless of its level and type.

Only if you have Union Blessing running.

[Elithas]

What you did was the equivalent of flipping a coin 4 times and claiming someone nerfed tails because it landed heads 4 times.

Nerf heads, that is OP

[Liwa]

Well, to be blunt, you mentioned earlier that you had done 15 raids; because you didn't get a bot, you said that the 10% claim is wrong. If a single bot had dropped it'd've been very close to the claimed 10%. The fact that a single bot drop would've skewed the perception so drastically is a clear indication that more - much more - data is needed.

Wrong, I had not seen any bots since the last patch and I asked a question. I did not say the 10% was wrong ... I only asked a question. If there had not just been a server merge and further patching I would not have even asked.

When you post that bot droprates are broken after doing 15 raids your post are indeed meaningless. No offense.

You are atleast supposed to have a bit more data than those 15 raids to say there is a problem with the drop rates, it's been the same drop rate for aslong as AI has been out and I see no reason to change it but that is a different discussion altogether.

Again, I did not say the drop rates were wrong ... there had been a recent patch and I asked a question.

Isnt that how clinical trials work? They test the drug on 10's of 1000's of people to see what side effects are before releasing it to the public? Or would you rather they just test it 15 times, go "looks fine lol" and stamp an approval label on it?

What you did was the equivalent of flipping a coin 4 times and claiming someone nerfed tails because it landed heads 4 times.

I think the problem stems from you not understanding how probability works.

You have my comments backwards Lazy ... I used the example of waiting until 100's of people had died or been hurt before acknowledging a problem. I did not say put a new drug out to the public after 15 trials. I said take note of problems after a small sample and investigate Before putting something new out to the public.

*snip*

While I agree that Kinnik's sample size is too small to derive anything of statistical significance, I also don't particularly agree with FC's stance of do more than 1000 raids, noting every drop, who was there, who wasn't there. If you see a problem there, THEN say something. In the meantime, thanks for testing this for us, here's a pat on the back for finding it. What do you mean you want the cru and time you spent on those 1000 raids back? You did it for the love of the game, not for loot.

Also its good that vhab has confirmed they haven't changed droprate intentionally. But let's face it, mistakes will and have happened(see boc droprate, earlier high ai gen droprate, and I'm sure plenty of others). If every "whine" thread was just ignored, those issues would never have been acknowledged and subsequently fixed. Again, I'm not saying that droprates has or hasn't changed, but I do advocate the sharing of data and information.

Thank you Cybertron, you seem to be the only one to understand my perspective of catching something early and asking a question ...

I'm all for saying something if you feel something is wrong, however I would like the actual whine to have some merit and not just be a post like: boohoo, i did 15 raids and didnt get a bot FML FC HATES ME FC FU

Please don't put false words in my mouth. I said nothing of the sort.

Kinnik

p.s. We have continued to do raids and still have had zero bot drops ... Unlike most of the people posting critical comments here (apparently), we don't have the time to do 1000 raids in a month to statistically test if either the recent patch or the merge to one server had an unintended impact on lead-bot drop-rates. So I am left with asking a question on the forums ... and apparently I am not allowed to do that either.